Cox Regression Model for HIV/AIDS Prevalence in Taraba State, Nigeria

Abstract

This study examines the hazard trend of patients leaving with HIV/AIDS in Taraba State, Nigeria. The data for this study was extracted from the available standard national medical registers of the Federal Medical Centre Jalingo, Taraba State. The registers include the Pre ART register (register of patients at their first visit), the ART register
(registration after ART initiation), and the follow-up patient form. Data were analyzed using simple frequency tables and the Cox proportional hazard model in Survival analysis. The goodness-of-fit test confirms a strong fit with p-value of 0.00391. From the Cox Proportional Hazard result, it was observed that four factors (Age group, CD4 Counts, Gender and Marital Status) considered which have adverse effect on HIV &AIDS prevalence in the study area it was found that CD4 Counts of infection (I, II, III and IV) and Marital Status were significant (P − value < 0.000). in terms of the CD4 Counts, it was found that the probability of patients in stage IV experiencing the event (death) is 4 times those in the other stages of the infection. In terms of Marital Status, the finding revealed that the risk of patients who are single experiencing the event is twice that of married patients.